New Delhi:
India is an agrarian society and the arrival of rains have always been considered auspicious in the country. But in recent years, the onset of monsoons in India have raised fear, concern and hustle bustle both in economic and political arena.
The MeT department gave serious trouble to Modi government on Tuesday by revising its Monsoon outlook to deficient. They had predicted 93% rains, but yesterday revised it to 88% which means that complete North West region including Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh will be the worst sufferers.
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The news came at a time when India is already suffering from world’s 5th deadliest heat wave, which has already killed more than 2500 people across the country.
The South West monsoon has already hit the Bay of Bengal on May 21 but it has been sluggish due to an anti-cyclone in the Arabian Sea pushing the monsoon arrival in Kerala to June 4.
Notably, the south west monsoon is crucial for kharif (summer) crops like rice, maize, paddy, wheat, pulses etc.
A deficit monsoon will affect their production and an untimely arrival of monsoon may hit output as 40% of the cultivable area in India is under irrigation. It can also douse rural demand and weigh on gross domestic product expansion as well as inflation.
The deficient monsoon is already casting a cloud over country’s growth and inflation with black-marketing and hoarding becoming major concerns for the Modi government.
Seeing the troubled times ahead, PM Modi has already asked his ministries to deal with the exigency. He also chaired a meeting to assess the situation.
According to economists, “If bad weather materializes, the risk is that higher food prices feed into inflationary expectations, pushing inflation off the RBI's disinflationary path.”
On Tuesday while announcing the monetary policy rate cuts, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan also mentioned that further trajectories depend on monsoons in India.
However, the true situation will only be known by mid-July when the sowing season will be in full swing.
Notably, Rainfall of less than 90% is considered a drought, while more than 110% of the average is considered an excess. India’s worst monsoon in decades occurred in 2009.
