Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll: 'Mahagathbandhan' may get 42 seats, setback for BJP

New Delhi, News Nation Bureau | Updated : 31 March 2019, 08:48 PM
The SP, BSP and RLD have forged an alliance while elbowing the Congress out of it.
The SP, BSP and RLD have forged an alliance while elbowing the Congress out of it.

The decision of the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to come together in Uttar Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 may deal a massive blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dream to repeat the 2014 poll magic, according the News Nation’s opinion poll.

The SP, BSP, RLD grand alliance may secure 42 seats, which could be a significant improvement from their last General Elections performance. The opinion poll conducted by the news channel found that the BJP and the Apna Dal may garner only 37 seats in the General Elections beginning from April 11. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP bagged 71 of the 80 seats, surpassing its highest tally of 58 seats in the state which had catapulted the NDA to power in 1998.

The SP, BSP and RLD have forged an alliance while elbowing the Congress out of it. The SP-BSP bonhomie won the Lok Sabha by-elections in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana last year. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi may only win one seat. Interestingly, it seems newly appointed Congress general secretary UP (East) Priyanka Gandhi will make little impact on the results of the party. 

When it comes to vote-sharing, the News Nation opinion poll predicts that the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ could again do better than the BJP-AD alliance. While the parties of Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati and Jayant Sinha may win 39 per cent of the votes, Amit Shah-Anupriya Patel alliance may end up with 37 per cent of the total votes. Whereas the Congress may bag only 12 per cent.

The issues that will dominate the Lok Sabha elections in the state include unemployment (22 per cent), inflation (18 per cent), corruption (11 per cent), PM candidate (10 per cent), law and order (9 per cent), basic infrastructure (7 per cent), farm distress (4 per cent), Ram temple (4 per cent) and others (13 per cent).

During the polls, the respondents were asked whether they were satisfied with the NDA government in dealing with the price rise. To this, 44 per cent of the respondents said they are satisfied, while the equal percentage of respondents said they are not.  

Other questions asked:

Satisfied with NDA government?

(Employment)

Yes 45%

No 45%

can’t say 10%

Satisfied with NDA government?

(Corruption)

Yes 49%

No 41%

can’t say 10%

Satisfied with NDA government?

(Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan)

Yes 62%

No 24%

can’t say 14%

Satisfied with NDA government?

(Actions against Pakistan)

Yes 60%

No 29%

can’t say 11%

Satisfied with NDA government?

(Farmers' income)

Yes 44%

No 43%

can’t say 13% 

Satisfied with NDA government?

(Economy)

Yes 49%

No 33%

can’t say 18%

Did demonetisation decision hit Indian economy?

Yes 46%

No 43%

can’t say 11%

Has India's image improved abroad?

Yes 64%

No 24%

can’t say 12%

Have 'Hindutva' statements hurt Modi government's image?

Yes 45%

No 39%

can’t say 16%

Prime agenda of Modi government?

Development 49%

Politics 35%

Can't say 16%

Rahul Gandhi's attack on Rafale Deal

Substance in allegations 38%

Baseless allegations 44%

Can't say 18%

Will BJP benefit from 10% general caste quota decision?

Yes 47%

No 32%

can’t say 21%

Is Ram Mandir an issue in Lok Sabha elections?

Yes 47%

No 39%

can’t say 14%

Has your standard of living improved in last 4.5 years?

Improved 38%

No change 32%

Worsened 17%

Can't say 13%

Uttar Pradesh – the politically-sensitive state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha – will go to polls in seven phases starting April 11. Voting in Uttar Pradesh will be held on April 11, April 18, April 23, April 29, May 6, May 12 and May 19. The counting of votes will take place on May 23.

The high-voltage elections in the state will see Rahul Gandhi contesting from Amethi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi. Meanwhile, putting rumours of retirement to rest, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi will be contesting from Rae Bareli.

The date sheet shows Varanasi constituency voting last on May 19, while a number of high-profile seats, including Amethi and Rae Bareli, will vote on May 6.

Voting in Lucknow, which elected Home Minister Rajnath Singh in 2014, would also vote on May 6. SP veteran Mulayam Singh Yadav will contest from Mainpuri, which will vote on April 23, while voting in Azamgarh from where party president Akhilesh Yadav will contest, will happen on May 12. Kannauj, which elected his daughter-in-law Dimple Yadav in 2014, will vote on April 29.

The EC said the 'voter verifiable paper audit trail' (VVPAT) will be used in all polling stations this time.

First Published: Sunday, March 31, 2019 07:39 PM
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