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Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls: 'Phir ek baar, Modi sarkar', NDA to win 286 seats

News Nation Channel Predicted That The BJP-led NDA Will Win Anything Between 282 And 290 Seats, While The Congress-led UPA May Garner A Maximum Of 126 Seats.

News Nation Bureau | Edited By : Aniruddha Dhar | Updated on: 21 May 2019, 08:52:56 PM
News Nation has conducted the biggest exit poll survey to provide you the most accurate data.

News Nation has conducted the biggest exit poll survey to provide you the most accurate data.

New Delhi:

Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Narendra Modi is set to return as Prime Minister for the second term on May 23 when the results of the Lok Sabha elections 2019 will be announced, according to the News Nation exit poll on Sunday. The channel predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win anything between 282 and 290 seats, while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) may garner a maximum of 126 seats.

Interestingly, Others will perform better than the UPA with the maximum of 138 seats. The NDA won 336 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, while the UPA, which had been in power for two straight terms, was reduced to 59.

The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 were held in seven phases, starting from April 11. Ninety-one constituencies went to the polls in the first phase on April 11, followed by 97 constituencies in the second phase on April 18. The third phase was held on April 23 and fourth on April 29, fifth on May 6, sixth on May 12 and seventh phase on May 19. 115 constituencies went to the polls in the third phase, 71 in the fourth phase, 51 in the fifth phase, 59 in the sixth phase and 59 in the seventh phase.

Exit poll 2019: How parties performed in different states:

Uttar Pradesh

As predicted by pollsters and experts, the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party ‘mahagathbandhan’ is likely to hurt the BJP’s sentiments in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.

According to the News Nation Exit Poll, the BJP along with its ally Apna Dal is likely to win 39 seats in the state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. On the other hand, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance is expected to win as many numbers of seats, while the Congress may be confined to just two seats.

The data of the exit poll shows a massive dip in the NDA’s seat share against its tally of 2014 when it swept the state, winning 73 seats. The BJP completely routed the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Congress and the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the state. Both the BSP and the Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) were not able to open their accounts in the Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP received 3,43,18,854 votes with a vote share of 42.6 per cent and won 71 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress was able to get 60,61,267 votes with a vote share of just 7.5 per cent and won 2 seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli. The BSP received 1,59,14,194 votes with a decent vote share of 19.8 per cent but failed to win a single seat in the state.

Maharashtra

The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is likely to get up to 45 per cent of vote share in the state. Out of 48 seats, the BJP is likely to win between 33 and 35 seats. On the other hand, the Congress+NCP+SWP+BVA coalition is likely to secure up to 39 per cent of vote share in the state. The coalition is likely to win 13 to 15 seats.

In the state, the BJP contested on 25 Lok Sabha seats, while the Shiv Sena on 23 seats. The Congress and the NCP fought on 25 and 19 seats respectively, leaving two seats each for their allies. Maharashtra went to polls in four phases in April.

Four Union Ministers, including Nitin Gadkari, Hansraj Ahir, Subhash Bhamre and Anant Gite, and two Congress veterans - Ashok Chavan and Sushil kumar Shinde - were among the 867 candidates who were in the fray in Maharashtra, which went to polls in four phases in April.  

West Bengal

The News Nation Exit Poll predicts that the BJP is likely to improve its tally by bagging 10-12 seats in the state, while the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) may win 26-28 seats. The Left Front and the Congress may end up getting 18 per cent and 10 per cent of the total votes respectively.

As far as the vote share is concerned, the Trinamool Congress is predicted to get 36 per cent of the total votes followed by the BJP (30%), Left (18%) and Congress (10%).

All 42 parliamentary seats across West Bengal had gone to polls in all seven phases held between April 11 and May 19. The state, which has been marred by violence since the first day of the marathon Lok Sabha polls, has witnessed a bitter battle between Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

While a host of national pollsters on Sunday started to telecast the exit poll results, followed by the conclusion of marathon Lok Sabha elections 2019, Banerjee has claimed that she does not trust this “Exit Poll” gossip. Taking to Twitter, Banerjee wrote: "I don’t trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together.”

Tamil Nadu

The AIADMK+BJP+PMK+DMDK coalition is likely to get up to 40 per cent of vote share in the state. Out of 39 seats, the coalition may win between 8 to 10 seats.

The Congress+DMK+VCK+MDMK+IUML+Left (CPI and CPM) coalition could get up to 45 per cent of vote share in the state. Out of 39 seats, the coalition is likely to win 27 to 29 seats.

Others are likely to get 12 per cent of vote share in the state with 39 seats. The south Indian state has 39 seats in the Lok Sabha. According to the News Nation.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) bagged 37 seats with a vote share of 44.9 per cent. The BJP is in coalition with the AIADMK, PMK and DMDK, while the Congress is coalition with the DMK, VCK, MDMK, IUML and Left parties.

Tamil Nadu went into Lok Sabha elections on all 39 seats in phase 2 on April 18.

Rajasthan

In Rajasthan, the BJP is expected to win 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats – a loss of three seats in comparison to the 2014 General Elections when it made a clean sweep, according to the exit poll conducted by News Nation. According to the data of the exit poll, the BJP will garner 52 per cent votes in the state. On the other hand, despite its victory in the 2018 Assembly polls, the Congress is unlikely to show any considerable improvement in its performance and is expected to win just three seats.

In the Assembly polls, the Congress won 99 seats, BJP won 73 and BSP won 6 seats out of the 199 seats that went to polls. The Congress, which emerged as the single largest party, got the support of BSP to form the government.

While the state has been voting the BJP and the Congress alternatively to power, the story is totally different when it comes to choosing a government at the Centre. The BJP, which has entered into an alliance with the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, won all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state, with a 55.6 per cent vote share, in 2014.

Madhya Pradesh

The News Nation Exit Poll predicted 22-24 seats for the BJP, while the Congress may get 5-7 seats in Madhya Pradesh. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP completely swept the state and won 27 seats in Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP received 1,60,15,695 votes with a whopping vote share of 54.8 per cent. The Congress managed to win only two seats in the state and received 1,03,40,274 votes with a vote share of 35.3 per cent. Only Kamal Nath from Chhindwara and Jyotiraditya Scindia from Guna were able to emerge victorious from the party in the state.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) got 3.8 per cent of the total votes polled in the state. Madhya Pradesh has 29 Lok Sabha seats and the 2014 election in the state was held in three phases on April 10, 17 and 24.

Some of the prominent winners in 2014 were Sushma Swaraj (BJP-Vidisha), Sumitra Mahajan (BJP-Indore), Nandkumar Singh Chauhan (BJP-Khandwa), Dileep Singh Bhuria (BJP-Ratlam), Rakesh Singh (BJP-Jabalpur), Faggan Singh Kulaste (BJP-Mandla), Prahlad Singh Patel (BJP-Damoh), Narendra Singh Tomar (BJP-Gwalior), Anoop Mishra (BJP-Morena), Virendra Kumar (BJP-Tikamgarh), Janardan Mishra (BJP-Rewa), Dalpat Singh Paraste (BJP-Shahdol) and Laxmi Narayan Yadav (BJP-Sagar).

Ajay Singh (Congress), Jaibhan Singh Pawaiya (BJP), Govind Singh Rajput (Congress), Rajesh Nandini Singh (Congress), Vivek Tankha (Congress), Chandrabhan Kuber Singh (BJP), Devendra Patel (Congress), Lakshman Singh (Congress), Premchand Guddu (Congress), Meenakshi Natarajan (Congress), Kantilal Bhuria (Congress) and Arun Yadav (Congress) lost the elections.

Gujarat

The News Nation Exit Poll has predicted that the BJP will 23 seats in the Lok Sabha poll 2019, while three seats will go in Congress’s favour. The BJP is eyeing a repeat of its performance in 2014 Lok Sabha polls when it won all the 26 seats. On the other hand, the Congress, which performed well in the 2017 Assembly polls, is hoping to reverse in the BJP bastion.

Andhra Pradesh

According to News Nation exit poll, the BJP-led NDA will sail past the magic figure winning 282-290 seats, while the UPA may get 118-126 seats in Lok Sabha elections 2019. Going by the exit poll, the YS Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSRCP is predicted to emerge victorious with 42 per cent vote share in the state. Whereas, the TDP, BJP and the Congress are projected to get 35 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent votes respectively.

When it comes to the seat sharing, the YSRCP and the TDP are likely to bag 15-17 and 7-9 seats respectively. On the other hand, both the BJP and the Congress may bag 0-2 seats each.

Voting for all the 175 Assembly and 25 Lok Sabha constituencies across Andhra Pradesh were conducted in a single phase on April 11. The high-stakes battle for power in the state Assembly and the Centre unfolded with widespread violence between workers of the regional giants - the Telugu Desam Party and YS Rajashekar Congress Party.

Allegations of distribution of money and EVM malfunctions drew considerations from the Election Commission regarding repolling in certain constituencies.

Karnataka

Out of 28 seats, the BJP is likely to win 17 to 19, with a vote share of 47 per cent in Karnataka. The Congress+JD(S) coalition may get up to 47 per cent of vote share in the state. The coalition may secure between 9 and 11 seats. Others are likely to get 4 per cent of vote share.

Assam

The News Nation Exit Poll predicted that the BJP will decimate the Congress in Assam by winning around 9-11 Lok Sabha seats. The grand old party is expected to win just 2-4 seats out of total 14 seats.

In term of vote share, the BJP to get 43 per cent of the vote share this time and the Congress to get 36 per cent of the vote share. In 2014, the BJP received 55,07,152 votes with a vote share of 36.86 per cent, while the Congress was able to garner 44,67,295 votes in the state with a vote share of 29.90 per cent.

In terms of seats in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP had won 7 and both the Congress and the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won 3 each. The Independent candidate was successful from Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat.

Bihar

The BJP will win between 29 and 31 seats in Bihar, while the UPA may get 9-11 seats in Bihar, predicted the News Nation exit poll. The polling in Bihar was held in all seven phases starting from April 11 to May 19.

The BJP, in alliance with the JD(U) and the LJP, is currently at power in Bihar and it hopes to gain big in the upcoming polls owing to the popularity of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the NDA is expected to face tough competition from Congress-RJD led Grand Alliance.

The grand alliance comprises RJD, Congress, HAM, RLSP, VIP, Sharad Yadav’s LJD and the three Left parties – CPI, CPI(ML) and CPM.

In the last General Elections, the BJP with its allies the Ram Vilas Paswan-led LJP and the Upendra Kushwaha-led RLSP had won 31 seats in Bihar. The RJD-Congress-NCP alliance was reduced to 7 seats (4+2+1) whereas the Nitish Kumar-led JDU was decimated with just 2 seats in the elections.

Odisha

The News Nation exit poll predicted a victory for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s seats are likely to rise from 1 to 8-10 seats. The exit poll predicts that Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) may manage to win 11-13 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress, on the other hand, may drop to zero seat in Odisha.

The state of Odisha is probably one of those states in which the Bharatiya Janata Party is pegging to capture maximum seats. In 2014, Odisha bucked the Modi wave and the ruling party had the consolation of winning a lone Lok Sabha seat in Sundargarh. But this time, the scenario is likely to change. After the BJP had an unprecedented success in the North-eastern states namely, Tripura, Assam and Manipur, the party is aiming to spread its wings in West Bengal and Odisha as well under the ‘Look east policy’.  While a popular and youthful Dharmendra Pradhan, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, has been projected as an alternative face to Naveen Patnaik for quite some time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah have made numerous visits to connect with the masses in Odisha.

Odisha, which has 21 Lok Sabha constituencies, saw lower voter turnout this year due to Cyclone Fani. In 2014, the BJD won with 44.10% vote share, the Congress got 26% and BJP got 21.50% vote share.

Jammu and Kashmir

Of the six Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP is predicted to win two seats whereas the Congress, the PDP, the NC and others may get one seat each. It would be a big blow to former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti if the PDP manages a win only a single seat in Kashmir.

Mehbooba is herself contesting from South Kashmir’s Anantnag constituency. With the exit poll showing the Congress winning one seat, it looks like the strategy to consolidate the “secular vote” has worked.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won two seats of Jammu and one seat of Ladakh. The PDP had won all three seats of the Valley.  The National Conference was not able to open its account in the state and the Congress had drawn a blank in the state.

Kerala

 The 20 parliamentary constituencies of Kerala saw a three-way clash between the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM), Congress and BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls. According to the Exit Poll conducted by the News Nation, the Congress/UDF is likely to get 11-13 seats with 38 per cent of vote share, the BJP will open its account in the state with 1-3 seats (14 per cent vote share), while the ruling Communist Party Marxist (CPM) may get 5 to 7 seats with 34 per cent vote share.

Delhi

According to News Nation Exit Poll, the BJP is likely to sweep all 7 seats in Delhi with a vote share of 45 per cent, repeating its 2014 magic. The AAP and the Congress, which failed to forge an alliance in the state, may once again end up with 0 seats. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, it was 65 per cent with the BJP sweeping all seven parliamentary seats. 

Delhi voted on May 12 in the phase 6 of the Lok Sabha Elections. A total of 164 candidates contested from seven seats in the national capital - Chandni Chowk, North East Delhi, East Delhi, New Delhi, North West Delhi, West Delhi and South Delhi.

Some of prominent names from these seats are BJP ‘s Manoj Tiwari (North East Delhi), Harsh Vardhan (Chandni Chowk), Ramesh Bidhuri (South Delhi), Congress’s veteran and former Delhi chief minister and Congress veteran Sheila Dikshit (North East Delhi), Congress leader Ajay Maken (New Delhi), cricketer-turned-politician Gautam Gambhir (East Delhi) from the BJP, boxer Vijender Sing. Popular AAP leaders Atishi (East Delhi) and Raghav Chadha (South Delhi).

Punjab

Punjab is one of the few states, where the Congress is likely to perform well with 6-8 seats followed by the SAD and the BJP alliance with 4-6 seats. The AAP, which had won 4 seats in the state in the last Lok Sabha polls, may end up with winning 0-2 seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP in alliance with the SAD managed to secure 2+4 = 6 seats, while the Congress won three seats. The voting for all the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab was held in the last and seven phases of polls on Sunday along with 13 seats in Uttar Pradesh, nine in West Bengal, eight seats each in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, four in Himachal Pradesh, three in Jharkhand and one seat of Chandigarh.

Haryana

According to the News Nation exit poll, the BJP is likely to repeat its 2014’s performance in this Lok Sabha elections as well and win seven out of 10 seats. However, the vote share of BJP will be around 38 per cent, while the Congress may secure 27 per cent, the INLD to get nine per cent, the Jannayak Janta Party alongside the Aam Aadmi Party (14 per cent), Others to get 10 per cent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured 34.7 per cent of vote share, the Congress garnered 22.9 per cent and the INLD got 24.4 per cent with two seats.

Telangana

Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao-led TRS is likely to gain 12 per cent vote share in Telangana followed by the Congress and the BJP, which are predicted to bag 29 per cent and 12 per cent of the total votes respectively. As far as the seat share is concerned, the TRS is projected to win 15-17 seats in Telangana, while both the BJP and the Congress will not be able to open its account in the Southern state.

Telangana, which went to polls in the first phase of General Elections on April 11, recorded 62.69 percent turnout across its 17 Lok Sabha constituencies, where former Union minister Renuka Chowdhury and AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi are among prominent candidates in the fray.

Jharkhand

The BJP is set to win between 9 and11 seats in Jharkhand, while the Grand Alliance is likely to win 3-5 seats, according to the exit poll.

The state, which has 14 Lok Sabha seats, is very crucial for the BJP. The Congress, the RJD, the JMM and the JVM have forged Grand Alliance in the state. The RJD is also a part of this alliance to take on the ruling BJP in the state.

In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP won 12 seats and left only 2 seats (Dumka and Rajmahal) for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

The Congress and the JMM had forged an alliance in the state to take on the BJP but the Grand Old Party failed to open its account. The 2014 election in Jharkhand was held in three phases on April 10, 17 and 24.

Chhattisgarh

The BJP is predicted to win between 4 and 6 seats, while the Congress may bag 5-7 seats in Chhattisgarh, according to the News Nation exit poll. The BJP’s projected vote share will be 41 per cent, while the Congress will get 43 per cent. The Others may secure 12 per cent of the vote.   

In the 2014 general elections, the BJP had bagged 10 seats out of 11 in Chhattisgarh. This election, the BJP dropped former Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh's son and the sitting MP, Abhishek Singh, from its list of candidates who contested the Lok Sabha polls in the state. The party instead fielded Santosh Pandey from the Rajnandgaon Lok Sabha seat.

The development came a few days after the BJP said that the party would change all its 10 sitting MPs in Chhattisgarh for the Lok Sabha polls 2019. The decision to drop all sitting MPs came in the wake of BJP's drubbing in the state in the December assembly elections after 15 years of rule under Raman Singh and is seen as an attempt to beat anti-incumbency against the sitting parliamentarians.

In Chhattisgarh, the voting was held on April 11, 18 and 23.

Ultras, like previous years, have given a poll boycott call though posters and pamphlets found in some pockets of Kanker, Rajnandgaon and Gariaband (part of the Mahasamund constietuncy) districts. In April, BJP Chhattisgarh MLA Bhima Mandavi and four policemen were killed in Dantewada after Maoists blew up their vehicle using an improvised explosive device. The terror attack came just 48 hours before the Lok Sabha elections in Bastar. The attack took place between Kuakonta and Shyamgiri hills when the state police escort vehicle was hit by the IED. 

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First Published : 21 May 2019, 08:52:56 PM