The Congress is likely to upset the Vasundhara Raje's government in Rajasthan, while Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s Raman Singh may retain power in Chhattisgarh, whereas Madhya Pradesh could witness a neck-and-neck fight between the two parties, according to an opinion poll by India’s most trusted channel News Nation. This is the first opinion poll conducted by any national news channel after the Election Commissioner announced the assembly election dates for five states, including Mizoram and Telangana, on October 6.
The News Nation opinion poll predicted that the Congress could win between 113 and 117 seats in Rajasthan, while Vasundhara Raje’s BJP may bag seats between 71 and 75. The others would win between 10 and 14 seats. Chief Minister Raje seems to be struggling against a strong anti-incumbency factor.
In Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh, who has been in power since 2003, could become the chief minister for the fourth time. Out of 90 total seats, the BJP will win between 43 and 47 seats, the Congress between 36 and 40, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Ajit Jogi’s Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) alliance may manage only between three and seven seats.
According to the deal between the BSP and the JCC, the former will contest 35 seats while the JCC will contest 55 seats in the 90-member House. Drainage, sanitation and unemployment are the major issues in the upcoming assembly polls here. These were followed by agrarian issues and price rise.
However, the toughest fight will be seen in Madhya Pradesh where incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s BJP may win anything between 109 and 113 seats, while the Congress, which has been trying hard to come back to power, is likely to bag between 107 and 111 seats. Others may win as many as 12 seats and could play an important role in forming the government.
A recent ABP News-CVoter survey predicted that the BJP may lose power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, saying the Congress is best placed in Rajasthan, where its state president Sachin Pilot is the first choice of the voters for the chief minister's post.
The survey has, however, added that a minor swing in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh can turn the tide in favour of either of the two main parties due to a very small difference between their projected vote shares.
The Times Now-Warroom Strategies survey has predicted a win for the BJP in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections 2018, but the party will get fewer seats than what it got in 2013. According to the poll, the BJP may win 142 out of the 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh while the Congress may get 77 seats. The others may win 11 seats.
When the respondents were asked about their preferred choice of Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan emerged the frontrunner with 61 per cent preferring him. Jyotiraditya Scindia was the choice of 17 per cent respondents followed by Digvijaya Singh (5 per cent) and Kamal Nath (6 per cent).