The Assembly elections 2018, held just a few months ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha, could be a setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the party might lose in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, while it is facing a tough fight from the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, according to News Nation exit poll. Mizoram and Telangana might witness hung assemblies.
Chhattisgarh Exit Poll 2018: BJP's Raman Singh is likely to lose Chhattisgarh this time. According to News Nation Exit Poll, the BJP may bag only 38 to 42 Assembly seats. The Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 40 to 44 seats. Congress rebel Ajit Jogi along with Mayawati's BSP can play a role of the kingmaker. The Jogi-led JCC and BSP alliance is expected to get 4 to 8 seats in the Assembly. The BJP is projected to get 38 per cent of votes, while the Congress is likely to get 41 per cent of votes. The Jogi-led alliance is projected to get 13 per cent of votes. In 2013, the BJP had won 49 seats with 41.04 per cent of votes. The Congress had won 39 seats with 40.29 per cent of votes. Unemployment (17 per cent) and inflation (17 per cent) are the two biggest issues for the Chhattisgarh voters. 13 per cent of voters picked corruption as their biggest issue in these elections.
BJP's Raman Singh is still the top choice for chief minister's position with 33 per cent votes. Congress state chief Bhupesh Bhagel is at number 2 with 18 per cent of votes. Ajit Jogi was a distant number 3 with only 9 per cent of votes.
Chief Minister Raman Singh, like his counterpart Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is also facing the anti-incumbency of BJP's 15-year rule in Chhattisgarh. The Assembly elections to the 90-member strong Assembly was held in two phases on November 12 and 20. The counting of votes will take place along with Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana on December 11.
However, different exit polls have predicted different results in Chhattisgarh. According to India News MP-NETA, Times Now-CNX and India TV, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party in the state. But according to Republic C-Voter, ABP News-CSDS, News 24-Pace Media and India Today-Axis exit polls, the Congress is the single largest party.
Rajasthan Exit Poll 2018: Rajasthan is likely to go with its decades' old tradition of voting the incumbent out. According to the News Nation exit poll, the Congress is likely to get a clear majority with 99-103 seats against the BJP’s 89-93. Vasundhara Raje-led BJP’s vote share is expected to be 39 per cent while the Congress, taking a giant leap forward, is predicted to win 44 per cent of the total vote share in the desert state. Since 193, Rajasthan has voted the incumbent out and the state is likely to repeat the same old story.
Although the official results of the December 7 Rajasthan Assembly elections will be announced on December 11 by the Election Commission, News Nation Exit Poll has predicted the mood of the voters. Earlier in October, the News Nation opinion poll had given the Congress party 113 to 117 seats against the BJP’s 71 to 75 seats.
Exit polls by other channels:
India Today-Axis My India: Seat share projections - BJP: 55-72, BSP: 0 Congress: 119-141, Others 4-11.
Times Now-CNX: Seat share projections - BJP: 85, Congress: 105, BSP: 2 Others: 7
Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll 2018: After 13 years in office, Bharatiya Janata Party's Shivraj Singh Chouhan is struggling for a fourth straight term in Madhya Pradesh. However, his party is slightly ahead of the Congress. According to News Nation Exit Poll, the BJP is likely to bag 108-112 seats to retain power in the state yet again in 2018. In a neck-and-neck fight with the incumbent BJP, the Congress will secure 105-109 seats. The BJP is projected to get 40 per cent of votes, while the Congress is likely to get 39 per cent of votes in Madhya Pradesh Elections 2018. In the 2013 Assembly polls, the BJP had won 165 seats and the Congress had won 58. Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party had won four and independent candidates had won three seats, respectively.
Going by the poll survey, Madhya Pradesh Election 2018 is being dominated by Unemployment (23 per cent) and Agricultural issue (13 per cent) followed by Corruption (10 per cent), Inflation (7 per cent) and several other ongoing factors (47%) in the state.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan remains to be the preferred chief minister in the state with an impressive 43 per cent votes. Congress MP Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath is the second and third choice with 29 and 10 per cent of total votes respectively.
The Assembly elections to the 230-member strong Assembly was held in a single phase on November 28. The counting of votes will take place along with Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana on December 11.
However, different exit polls have predicted different results in Madhya Pradesh. According to India Today-Axis My India, India TV, Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat, Times Now -CNX, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party in the state. But as per the poll survey by India News MP-NETA, News 24-Pace Media, Republic-C-Voters and ABP News the Congress will make a huge comeback in the state after 15 long years.
In Telangana, News Nation exit poll predicted that K Chandrashekar Rao will retain the power. While TRS could win between 53-57 seats, the Congress-TDP alliance is expected to get 51-55 seats. The majority mark is 61.
The elections in Telangana were supposed to be held in May 2019. But incumbent Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) dissolved the Assembly in September following which the Election Commission announced polls in Telangana with four other states – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram.
The Congress has stitched together “Prajakutami” (People’s Front) along with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Telangana Jana Samiti (TJS) and the CPI to take on the ruling TRS, led by caretaker Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR).
Mizoram Exit Poll 2018: The Mizo National Front (MNF) looks slightly ahead of the Congress in the 40 assembly seats in Mizoram, which went to poll on November 28, News Nation Exit poll predicted on Friday. As per the exit polls results, Mizoram is seen as a direct contest between the Congress and MNF as in the previous elections in the state. While the survey gave 16-20 seats to the MNF, the Congress is projected to win 10-14 seats. The Zoram Peoples Movement (ZPM) and the BJP may get 5-9 and 0-4 seats respectively in the state. However, another contending party - the National People’s Party (NPP) could play a vital role in the formation of the next government.
Among the five states that recently went to the elections this November-December, Mizoram is the only Congress-ruled state in the northeast.
However, according to Republic-C-Voter, MNF will win between 16-20 seats, while the Congress might may anything between 14-18 seats and others could win 3-10 seats. Times Now-CNX predicted that MNF could win 18 seats followed by the Congress (16) and others (6).