New Delhi:
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) prediction of a 60 per cent possibility of El Nino this year has raised deep concerns of drought-like conditions in some parts of India, a country that largely depends upon agriculture.
A private weather forecaster, Skymet, says El Nino has an inverse relation with the monsoon in India. It says that El Nino was responsible for six severe droughts in the country since 1871, including the one in 2002 and another in 2009.
However, despite being strong, the El Nino did not result in drought in 1997-98, while when it was moderate, it caused one of the worst droughts back in 2002.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a weather condition in which a band of warm water temperatures is periodically formed off the Pacific coast of South America. This period lasts for about a year when the temperatures affect wind patterns thus leading to droughts in various parts of the world.
How El Nino affects monsoon in India?
Skymet’s data from 1880-2005 clearly shows that El Nino has been affecting the Indian monsoon for ages. It says that about 90 per cent of evolving El Nino resulted in below normal rainfall, while 65 per cent caused droughts.
La Nina is an opposite weather condition to El Nino. It develops colder sea temperatures off the western South America Coast, thus leading to normal or excessive rain in India.
How El Nino affects India’s agrarian economy?
Below-normal rainfall results in low production of summer season crops. So in a way, El Nino directly affects India's agrarian economy, thus leading to high inflation and low GDP growth. The contribution of agriculture to the Indian economy is around 14 per cent.
